Terrorist organizations both global and domestic take some pride and in fact count on their numbers to intimidate and frighten their victims. They believe that being part of a large organization/following gives the impression that theirs is the popular thinking,
The F.B.I. and the C.I.A. both have formed lists of groups that are monitored and studied, penetrated and undermined in hopes of making their effectiveness as slight as possible.
The recent demise of Bin Laden will no doubt have global impact. Groups such as Al Qaeda will take some strength from seeing their premier planner meet his end, believing him a martyr.
Others my pause and revisit their path, considering the risk and value in the actions of the "movement".
What will undoubtedly happen is the spawn of the Lone Wolf. These "micro cells" are capable of a form of fluidity unlike other known groups.
The lone wolf is already among us, he is the man that drives a truck full of explosives into the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, or woman waring an explosive vest killing dozens of Shiite Pilgrims on the road to worship or carry out a Sarin gas attack in a Tokyo subway.
These are the acts of individuals. They are acting on behalf of a group to accomplish their mission but they take that last step alone.
I can envision a time when individuals will plan and execute their attacks totally alone.
The true Lone Wolf!
These individuals may not do the quantity of damage that groups with more resources can achieve, they may not perform on the grandiose scale that grabs the global news, but on a small and personal level they can operate without the usual detectable indicators used by intelligence agencies. Prediction from such types of terrorism may be impossible.
It may have taken ten years to stop Bin Laden but keep in mind it took SEVENTEEN years to stop Ted Kaczynski the Unabomber. The Lone Wolf is hard to stop.
Keep in mind it is not the damage that a terrorist seeks, it is the terror. He wants to change your way of life, make you live in fear.
John Allen Muhammad and Lee Boyd Malvo struck terror into the hearts of citizens in Washington D.C., Virginia and Maryland for months as they sniped Innocent and seemingly random victims.
David Berkowizt terrorized an entire city as the Son of Sam Killer, many people would not venture out at night for fear of being killed by the mysterious 44 cal, mad man.
These hand full of criminals may have had an agenda, in some cases the only agenda was carnage, but they prove that you don't have to be smart or well equipped to strike terror and change the way we live.
Where are we?
While the Police and dedicated Anti Terrorist Units patrol the hard targets, airports, train terminals and government buildings, we as security are holding post over the softer more common but no less vital and strategic areas of commerce and infrastructure.
Passenger train bridges, schools, hospitals, stadiums, shopping malls all present the type of target that is both hard to protect yet juicy enough for a deranged yet determined enemy to readily exploit.
Power stations could be destroyed causing large areas of chaos, confusion and crime.
In 2003 a summer time blackout effected most of the east coast of the United States including parts of Canada. Such a blackout today would not only plunge the country into darkness it would see rise in crime and further incidents of sabotage and destruction. Martial law could be declared causing unrest and resentment among the population, fuel supplies and telecommunication would break down and hundreds of millions could be wasted restoring what was. The effect on the economy alone would be catastrophic.
I fear a successful Lone Wolf attack on such targets could start a trend and copy cat attacks will become more prolific. The single handed terrorist in the news will be sensationalized and his deeds magnified and possibly emulated.
A fifth column is already among us, made up of individuals both opportunistic and dangerous.
The new terrorist is not a group, faction or organization. he is the Lone Wolf. The true believer with no one to impress but himself and his God. No audience, no peers, no accolades.
Fear him and be watchful, he's just over the horizon.
RJ Mosca
